Why being bold takes more than data.

Every now and again two seemingly natural brand partnerships come along and everyone loses their collective shit. The "I wish I'd done that, made that, thought like that" kind of moments. As I write, two of the year's biggest have just landed in health and fitness. M&S x Zoe, and Peloton x TikTok.

We've known for a while that personalised nutrition matters to our overall wellbeing. Zoe and its founder, Prof Tim Spector, built their research on how individual our metabolic responses to food really are. Whether it's Davina McCall or everyone's favourite entrepreneurial showman Steven Bartlett singing its praises, Zoe has until now been cost-restrictive for most. It has felt exclusive, even cultish, which in marketing is high praise for a community that devoted.

With the global move towards food-as-medicine showing no sign of slowing, M&S x Zoe pairs a company on a mission to tackle global health with a more mainstream audience, albeit a more affluent one than if a big-four retailer had landed it. But this is surely just the starting point. This is not just a drink. This is a...

Over the coming months I expect the collaboration to expand. New meal solutions, some of Zoe's more tailored health offerings reaching M&S customers, more research participants as a natural by-product. And then what? I'm an all-in kind of guy on brand partnerships. Go big and go bold. You have one shot to grab attention at the start. If this stretched to health insurance, to analysis of basket data on how people actually eat, tied into loyalty to gamify a healthier lifestyle, this could be M&S's chance to do something genuinely transformative in health. Having been at the forefront of a supermarket health initiative myself, I know how much gets left on the table when all it needs is more energy and ambition from everyone involved.

The only real growth left for brands this year is competing for a greater share of people's lives. So surely this can grow far beyond a gut-shot drink. M&S have stolen the show on quality, innovation and value. Can they do it on health?

The Peloton play

Next on the new-year partnerships list is the Wall-Street-shifting Peloton x TikTok tie-up. In the attention economy, if you want to do more than advertise, there's no better place than TikTok, an entertainment-first destination being touted as the shot in the arm Peloton needs. Judging by last week's headlines you'd think you'd missed something in the announcement, given the share-price hike. Such is the power of TikTok and a check move by Peloton to go all in. It's the best news their investors have had in a while. A content partnership with scale written all over it, and scale is what matters here.

Audiences keep changing how they engage with fitness content (remember Joe Wicks?), so staying relevant and accessible to new audiences has to be near the top of Peloton's priorities. Like Zoe, it has felt exclusive for too long, haloed by hardware costs that its detractors recall first. If Peloton wants to become the go-to fitness community content company, this partnership is a step class in the right direction, and a reminder there's far more to the brand than the bike.

For TikTok, and for Gravity Road, the creative shop architecting these deals and the people behind Unilever's CleanTok phenomenon, there's a common thread. Owning the conversation at scale will always outstrip a small test-and-learn activation. Studying the poker pros, you learn that knowing when and where to go big is a real skill. Too many people fold. Sometimes you just have to make the big play. This is one, and it'll take diligence, persuasion and the alignment of multiple stakeholders, which is commendable in itself. If something is worth doing, if the odds stack up, if the risk is calculated to pay back in reward, and you're clear on what you're measuring, then do it. Don't make the play just to protect your head. Make it. You'll be surprised.

Toe-dipping is the riskiest move of all

Last year we saw a lot of toe-dipping, not just in partnerships but across marketing innovation. A reflection of the nervousness in C-suites and marketing departments the world over. On everything from live commerce to retail media, there were more one-offs than an average Tuesday night on Channel 5. Impossible to measure, never integrated into a wider strategy. That isn't caution. It's the most expensive strategy of all, because you pay for the activity and learn nothing.

This year will be defined by bigger, bolder plays, deeper collaborations and brands working to expand their context in people's lives. It will take excellent people to bring big plays to the table.

The stakes are high. Be bold and trust your gut.

2026 afterword. I wrote this in January 2024, as two predictions. I argued M&S x Zoe and Peloton x TikTok would only matter if both partners had the guts to go all the way rather than dip a toe. Two years on, I'm less interested in scoring my own forecasts than in the principle, which has held up better than either deal. The partnerships that compounded were the ones built for scale and integration. The toe-dips, the one-off activations nobody could measure or connect to a strategy, did exactly what toe-dips do. They evaporated. The Gut Shots test is the same whether you're reading this in 2024 or now. Scale, integration, measurement, and the nerve to commit.

Gut Shots (n.): Bold, calculated partnership plays that beat tentative toe-dipping. A worthwhile play passes four tests: real scale, genuine integration into wider strategy, clear measurement, and the nerve to go all in. Like poker, the skill is knowing when to make the big move rather than folding to protect your head. Toe-dipping, the one-off activation nobody can measure, is the most expensive strategy of all.

Asked at the counter

How do you evaluate a brand partnership? Run it through four tests: does it have real scale, is it genuinely integrated into a wider strategy rather than bolted on, is it clearly measurable, and do both partners have the nerve to go all the way? Owning the conversation at scale will always outstrip a small test-and-learn activation. If the odds stack up and the risk is calculated to pay back, make the play rather than dip a toe.

Why do one-off activations fail? Because they're toe-dips: impossible to measure and never integrated into a wider strategy. There were more of them than an average Tuesday night on Channel 5, born of nervousness in the C-suite. That isn't caution, it's the most expensive strategy of all, because you pay for the activity and learn nothing from it.

When should a brand go all in? When the odds stack up, the risk is calculated to pay back in reward, and you're clear on exactly what you're measuring. Studying the poker pros teaches you that knowing when and where to go big is a real skill, and too many people fold. You have one shot to grab attention at the start, so don't make the play just to protect your head. Make it.